Friday, December 29, 2017

New publication, just in time for the new year: A tale of two papers and two new friends.

About a month before I left Moffitt, in June of 2016, I got a twitter direct message from Steven Strogatz that said he had read one of my earlier posts on evolutionary graph theory and he mentioned there might be some fun to be had with the more 'math-y' aspects of the problem.

This led to a long series of fun phone calls and discussions about how network connected structures related to the biology of cancer (and even infections within hosts). One of Steven's students at Cornell, Bertrand, grabbed ahold of the idea and ran some initial simulations of a few of our ideas and found a striking result: that the fixation time for a simple Moran process on a large number of known graph structures followed, almost perfectly, a simple log-normal distribution.

An except from a much more complete, and fun to read document from Bertrand....

This finding struck us as something worth chasing down a bit more. What we found ended up opening up several really fun cans of worms, and began an interesting and fruitful collaboration.
I ended up making the move to Cleveland Clinic, and in the mean time Bertrand and Steven continued to chew on this problem and we published the first paper of the collaboration Takeover times for a simple model of network infection, in Physical Review E. It was in this paper where we first realized that the distributions we were observing were not, in fact, log normal, but instead were a kind of extreme value distribution called a Gumbel distribution, which has been known to masquerade as log-normal.



We kept chewing on the problem, and I went to visit Cornell and took a long walk with Bertrand and Steven and Murray (the Strogatz family dog) and even more lightbulbs went off concerning a quite technical, but important detail of the models of evolutionary dynamics - in particular, the choice of the order of update (Birth or Death first) and how fitness biases are implemented (whether you choose which node to replace based on fitness, or how probable it is for a given node to divide).


I gave a short talk the next day, which was live streamed and can be seen here on Cornell's Applied Math colloquium page.  Overall it was a super nice visit, and we were able, I think, to solidify some of our thinking on this issue, which we dutifully scribbled on a napkin:



This led to some further thinking, and then Bertrand opened another kettle of fish when he found a series of papers that discussed 'Sartwell's Law' - which was a phenomenological law describing the 'log-normal' distribution of incubations times (within host) for a long list of diseases, including cancers. While this has been observed for over 100 years, there had yet to be any real work done describing WHY, and it seemed that our model formulation, and results to date, could help explain this. In fact, replotting some old data made for a nice figure one...



and if you want to know WHY??  you'll have to go read the paper that just came out: Evolutionary dynamics of incubation periods in eLife (aside: the review and publication experience was really stellar - 5 stars).


I'm looking forward to what comes next. I think this work has opened up a few doors for folks to go through in probability and network theory for maths folks, possibly in condensed matter/percolation theory for the more physics-y crowd and maybe even in biology and epidemiology. Only time will tell.

16 comments:

  1. I am so happy to be finally cured of herpes simplex virus  by herbalist Razor,Ever since i was diagnosed with the virus i have been using medical drugs to suppress it, i later realized it was causing more damage to my health than the virus,i opted for herbs and got to find out about the great work herbalist Doctor razor have been doing with his herbal remedy. i contacted him and he promised to help me get rid of it,after 4 days i received a package fro the delivery service and it was from the doctor who sent me the herbal treatment in Dallas,Texas USA, And he instructed me on how i was going too take in for the 18 days. After completing the dosage he told e to go for a medical checkup and when i did the doctors conducted some test on me but they were stunned that my status was now negative,they conducted several test on me to be sure. i even went to Medical City Dallas Hospital, where they conducted another test and it was still negative. I am so grateful to you herbal doctor razor , God will continue to prosper you,i pray the world gets to know about you and your herbal exploits. Reach him on his email : drrazorherbalhome@gmail.com Whatsapp/Call his cell phone on +2349065420442. PLEASE SHARE , SO THE WORLD CAN GET TO KNOW ABOUT HIM

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    Replies
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  2. I am so happy to be finally cured of herpes simplex virus  by herbalist Razor,Ever since i was diagnosed with the virus i have been using medical drugs to suppress it, i later realized it was causing more damage to my health than the virus,i opted for herbs and got to find out about the great work herbalist Doctor razor have been doing with his herbal remedy. i contacted him and he promised to help me get rid of it,after 4 days i received a package fro the delivery service and it was from the doctor who sent me the herbal treatment in Dallas,Texas USA, And he instructed me on how i was going too take in for the 18 days. After completing the dosage he told e to go for a medical checkup and when i did the doctors conducted some test on me but they were stunned that my status was now negative,they conducted several test on me to be sure. i even went to Medical City Dallas Hospital, where they conducted another test and it was still negative. I am so grateful to you herbal doctor razor , God will continue to prosper you,i pray the world gets to know about you and your herbal exploits. Reach him on his email : drrazorherbalhome@gmail.com Whatsapp/Call his cell phone on +2349065420442. PLEASE SHARE , SO THE WORLD CAN GET TO KNOW ABOUT HIM

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  9. Hello, I want to write a little review about the good work of doctor ehiaguna, who cured me from HSV 1&2 for just 2 week with his herbal medicine, I never believe I can be cured again and have a good life like others, I always regretted the day I got diagnose with this virus, I become lost of hope when my doctor told me there is no cure for it, Well I am so grateful for my helper who get me cured with his herbal medicine, I went online in search of anything that can help me because I can’t deal with it forever so I found dr ehiaguna email drehiaguna@gmail.com on a Facebook of someone who was cured by him,of the same herpes, so I quickly contacted him for help and explained all my pains to him, he told me not to worry about it there is a cure for real, I never believe until he sent me the herbs when I ordered for it and I got it within 5 working days that is how I took the medicine for 2 weeks and the following week I went for a test just to confirm I was 100% cured from this sickness what a miracle in my life, I am so happy right now, and forever greatful, you can also get in contact with him if you have such sickness through his whatsapp +2348073908953 you can  email him:: drehiaguna@gmail.com visit his website.  https://effectiveherbalcurehome.blogspot.com/  God bless you

    ReplyDelete
  10. Hello, I want to write a little review about the good work of doctor ehiaguna, who cured me from HSV 1&2 for just 2 week with his herbal medicine, I never believe I can be cured again and have a good life like others, I always regretted the day I got diagnose with this virus, I become lost of hope when my doctor told me there is no cure for it, Well I am so grateful for my helper who get me cured with his herbal medicine, I went online in search of anything that can help me because I can’t deal with it forever so I found dr ehiaguna email drehiaguna@gmail.com on a Facebook of someone who was cured by him,of the same herpes, so I quickly contacted him for help and explained all my pains to him, he told me not to worry about it there is a cure for real, I never believe until he sent me the herbs when I ordered for it and I got it within 5 working days that is how I took the medicine for 2 weeks and the following week I went for a test just to confirm I was 100% cured from this sickness what a miracle in my life, I am so happy right now, and forever greatful, you can also get in contact with him if you have such sickness through his whatsapp +2348073908953 you can  email him:: drehiaguna@gmail.com visit his website.  https://effectiveherbalcurehome.blogspot.com/  God bless you

    ReplyDelete
  11. I'm 40 years old female I tested genital herpes (HSV1-2) positive in 2016. I was having bad outbreaks. EXTREMELY PAINFUL. I have try different kinds of drugs and treatment by the medical doctors all to know was avail. Six months ago I was desperately online searching for a helpful remedies for genital herpes (HSV1-2) cure, which I come across some helpful remedies on how Dr OYAGU have help so many people in curing genital herpes (HSV1-2) with the help of herbal treatment because I too believe there is someone somewhere in the world who can cure herpes completely. At of the past 2 months, however, I've been following his herpes protocol Via oyaguherbalhome@gmail.com or +2348101755322 and it stopped all outbreaks completely! To my greatest surprise I was cured completely by following the protocol of his herbal medicine . Don't be discouraged by the medical doctors. There is a cure for HSV with the help of herbs and roots by a herbalist Dr call Dr OYAGU he is so kind and truthful with his herbal treatment, kindly contact him for more information Via oyaguherbalhome@gmail.com or WhatsApp DR on +2348101755322 or visit his website https://oyaguspellcaster.wixsite.com/oyaguherbalhome you will be lucky as I am today

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